الملخص الإنجليزي
Objectives: The objective of this study is to reach a model defining
factors precipitating short survival in patients with oesophageal
varices and improving the understanding of such factors. Models
would help to prioritize the clinical goals and intervention for
saving the lives of patients.
Methods: Retrospective analysis of all patients admitted to King
Abdul Aziz University Hospital who had been diagnosed with
oesophageal varices. The patients' demographics, disease history,
physical examination, viral infections, parasitic infections, blood
pictures, cancer biomarkers, liver enzymes and bleeding details
were collected, tested for correlation with mortality to formulate
a model.
Results: A total of 148 patients were included in this study. 37
clinical variables were studied only 15 factors were found to have
a statistical significance. These factors were PT (RC=0.17338
P-value 0.00011), APTT (RC=0.07916, P-value 0.00002),
haemoglobin level (RC=-0.44748, P-value <0.0001), WBC
(RC = 0.22255, P-value 0.00001), serum albumin level (RC=-
0.12953, P-value 0.00001), serum creatinine (RC=0.01483,
P-value 0.00002), at least one incidence of encephalopathy (RC=1.80500, P-value 0.00014), total bilirubin (RC=0.01371,
P-value 0.00016), direct bilirubin (RC=0.01298, P-value
0.00357, serum AST (RC=0.00914, P-value 0.00462), presence
of at least bleeding event (RC=1.03373, P-value 0.00613), ascites
grade I (RC=-1.57435, P-value 0.00967), SBP (RC=1.47216,
P-value 0.01581), platelets count (RC=0.00398, P-value 0.03476)
and oesophageal varices (RC = -1.42139, P-value 0.03673). Only
5 factors were likely to affect the mortality status. These factors
were encephalopathy, spontaneous SBP, bleeding, ascites and
grade of oesophageal varices. Six models were then formulated.
Conclusion: These models should be retested in larger study
groups to test their reliability in order to use them as surrogate
end point in future clinical studies.
