English abstract
Since hundreds of years ago, Oman has established trade and cultural linkages with
many African countries in East and South Africa. Omani traders used to ship goods
from Oman to Africa and Omani ports served as a re-export hub taking advantage of
Oman ships infrastructure and logistic connectivity with the main ports at that time.
Over the years, new trade pattern has emerged as Oman diversified its economy and
engaged in global trade within the region and beyond. Despite the fact that Oman
enjoys commercial, historical and cultural ties with many East and South African
countries, yet this strategic relationship has not resulted in boosting trade between
Oman and the countries of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
(COMESA). This thesis aims to examine the determinants of Oman non-oil exports
to COMESA and investigate Oman export potential. At a country level, the thesis
used a panel data of 21 members countries of COMESA over 2009-2018 and applied
the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator (PPML) to estimate an
augmented gravity model. At the frim level, the thesis used the probit and logit
models to investigate firms export propensity to COMESA focusing on the role of
innovation and logistics. At the country level, the model shows that Oman GDP per
capita, common language, real effective exchange rate, trading partner logistic
performance LPI have the expected positive effect on Oman exports to COMESA
countries. Distance, trading partner credit risk, applied MFN are found to be negative
as expected. Trading partner GDP per capita is found to be negative, whereas export
credit insurance and innovation have mixed effects on commodity exports. At firm
level, the model found that the firm size and age are not significant in explaining
Oman's export to COMESA. Innovation is positively and significantly correlated
with firm export while as expected the lack of trade facilitation is found to lower
firms exports. The thesis suggested some policy implications at country level and
firm level. At country level, the thesis recommended to reform export credit
insurance scheme, design incentives package for international traders, introduce
incentives to attract innovative companies and to initiate long-term export strategy to
COMESA. At firm level, the thesis suggested that firms should consider innovation
as a routine practice in their business. In the context of COMESA, firms should
adopt innovation that meets the economic characteristics of COMESA.
