وثيقة

Economic assessment of non-tariff measures in Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA).

الناشر
Sultan Qaboos University.
ميلادي
2021
اللغة
الأنجليزية
الملخص الإنجليزي
The Indian Ocean has always been a trade nexus connecting Asia, the Middle East and Africa and has recently seen key players in global trade showing great interest in the region. In the coming decades, economic and productivity growth is expected to rise considering its relative population, growing market and strategic location. The Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) is a regional association based on the principle of open regionalism to promote liberalization through trade and investment facilitation. IORA region has in recent years, just like the world, witnessed an increase in the prevalence of NTMs and accounts for about 18% of global NTMs notified to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The trade cost as a result of NTMs is more than double custom tariffs and would serve as a hindrance to achieving economic integration and sustainable growth of the region. Based on this, this thesis assesses the impact of NTMs in IORA using a combination of descriptive, partial and general equilibrium analysis. The specific objectives of the thesis are First, analyze trade patterns and assess the prevalence of NTMs in the region using standard indicators. Secondly, estimate the advalorem tariff equivalents (AVE) of NTMs as applied to agricultural and non-agricultural products using a partial equilibrium framework (gravity model). Thirdly, to evaluate the economy-wide effects of gradual tariff liberalization in the IORA region using the dynamic general equilibrium modelling framework. Lastly, to Explore IORA integration scenarios in which NTM reduction and trade facilitation is the driver of trade policy reforms. The descriptive analysis indicates significant diversity in the tariff regime, NTM and trade facilitation performance. More than half of IORA members still operate moderate to restrictive tariff regimes and a majority of the members perform below the global average based on trade facilitation indicators. The level of intra-trade is high but have been attributed to the overlap of plurilateral trade agreements in the region. The partial equilibrium analysis, using gravity model, estimated the importer specific Ad-valorem equivalents for four (4) mostly used NTMs in the region, that is sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), technical barriers to trade (TBT), quantitative restriction (QR) and safeguard measures (SG). The results showed the presence of both import-impeding and promoting effects of NTMs; however, the import-impeding effect dominates in the region. The quantitative restriction and safeguard measures were more restrictive compared to sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical trade barriers. This is quite expected as quantitative restrictions are trade-distorting by design. The results also indicated that agricultural and food products are negatively affected by NTMs, mostly quantitative restriction and safeguards measures despite the prevalence of the SPS measures in the agriculture sector. The general equilibrium analysis made use of the newly developed recursive dynamic general equilibrium model, GTAP-RD, to evaluate two main scenarios. Scenario I evaluate the effect of a gradual tariff cut on IORA while Scenario II combines the impact of tariff cuts, NTM reduction and trade facilitation. The scenarios were compared to the present Open regionalism status of IORA. Results from both scenarios show that the manufacturing sector would be positively impacted more than the agri-food sectors. It also indicates that middle and low-income countries in IORA would benefit more than higher-income countries from deeper integration. The overall results from welfare effects, GDP, exports, imports, sectoral output and investment accentuate the benefits that would be derived by IORA countries deciding to go deeper in economic integration as compared to the present form of open regionalism framework. This study recommends reforming trade policy in the region toward NTMs that are more transparent and trade enhancing. It also recommends harmonization and mutual recognition of standards and measures that would facilitate trade and investment in the region.
قالب العنصر
الرسائل والأطروحات الجامعية

مواد أخرى لنفس المؤلف

الرسائل والأطروحات الجامعية
1
0
Niran, Akintola Abdallah.
Sultan Qaboos University
2018

مواد أخرى لنفس الموضوع

مقالات الدوريات
4
0
Gani, Azmat.
Brill Academic Publishers.
2021-01-01
الرسائل والأطروحات الجامعية
1
0
Niran, Akintola Abdallah.
Sultan Qaboos University
2018